In the past week I’ve touched on Nikon’s medium-term plans as well as what’s happening generally in the camera industry. The question I'm now getting even more than usual is “what’s Nikon’s future camera plans?”
Anticipating new Nikon products is always a risky business. While Nikon has a very specific engineering strategy and tactics that repeats, predicting the exact what and when is tough to get right.
Here’s what I believe based upon my sources at the moment:
- The next Z System camera is almost certainly the Z30 iteration (call it the Z30II). Because of the RED acquisition and subsequent ZR design, there’s potential that this iteration turns out a little different than we might normally expect, as it could end up a ZR Junior. I expect this to be an anouncement sometime this summer or early fall.
- The most important upcoming Z System camera is the Z9II. I’m still hearing “end-of-year, start-of-next year” as the current target announce date, and this is delayed from the original schedule for reasons currently unknown, but almost certainly involving either the EXPEED or image sensor re-design (the most common thing I hear from sources is that Nikon didn’t quite hit their original global shutter goal and backed off to just a faster electronic shutter). The reason this camera is important is that it will establish the next generation of features and performance available in the Z System. And that’s a gating element for a number of other future products, unfortunately (e.g. any eventual Z5, Z6, or Z8 update).
- Beyond that, it gets very murky. I’m aware of several different ideas Nikon has considered and even prototyped, but none of those have gotten official approval that I know of. From the user base the two greatest demands currently are “Z7 iteration” and “higher-end DX.” Both those potential cameras interact with other products in the lineup, so that requires more top management buy in and that would have occurred during the top management discussions that occur with Nikon’s just ended fiscal year end. In other words, it might only be about now that additional models got green-lighted.
That said, Nikon repeats patterns. The one pattern I think we’d all like to see is a repeat of the D3/D300, D5/D500 parallel launch. Indeed, it would be the one thing I’d be strongly pursuing if I were in charge of Nikon’s product management. Ironically, the delay in the Z9II is what actually allows Nikon to consider another such parallel launch, as that would allow them to put EXPEED8 into a Z90 and sell it for the US$2500+ price point it’d likely need to be at.
A dual FX/DX launch would give Nikon the quick re-use of EXPEED8 to keeps costs down, but it introduces a new problem: what’s the DX image sensor that goes with that? It would almost certainly have to be a variant of the Sony Semiconductor 26mp stacked sensor, which then puts that Z90 in the dreaded “only use of an image sensor” category and increases costs.
The other easily picked fruits in any potential future Nikon camera launch are these:
- The “simple” FX — Nikon experimented with a reduced complexity entry model (part of which led to the ZR user interface) I called the Z3. I believe a variant of that model is still on the table, as small and simple is strongly sellable at the moment. I doubt that we’d get back to a US$999 FX model this way, but this would still be a very affordable option should it happen. Moreover, it could be morphed into a fixed lens compact very easily, and Nikon also needs a high quality fixed lens compact.
- The 8K ZR — Basically take what was learned with the Z6III/ZR pairing and apply it one level higher, to the Z8 underpinnings. I suspect, however, that this would wait for EXPEED8 and whatever video options it adds.
You’ll notice that I didn’t put a Z7III into any of the above options. That’s because there are four angles Nikon could navigate to potentially satisfy Z7 upgrade requests:
- Pixels — simply go with EXPEED7 and more pixels. This is the landscape/architecture option. Yes, the camera could be used for other things, but the design points would emphasize those two categories first and foremost. Indeed, quick rolling shutter for video would be a low priority. The fact that this hasn’t happened probably indicates that Nikon rejected this option.
- Cheaper Z8 — Nikon is currently discounting the Z8 by US$900, which makes this idea troublesome, as that’s about the price point a Z7III with EXPEED7 and the current or modified image sensor would sit. That doesn’t accomplish much (it likely only picks up a few of the current Z7 and Z7II upgraders who didn’t make it to the Z8), though it does sustain the model.
- New Form Factor — Stick with the current image sensor, put in the EXPEED7 processor, but use Sony’s A#C approach by putting the result in a smaller body with an offset viewfinder. This puts a new form factor in play that could find it’s way to other models in the future (e.g. Z5II iteration).
- ZfII — Stick the Z7II image sensor into the Zf body and refine that body a bit. This solves both the Zf and Z7 iteration issues, though not all Z7/Z7II users would want the Zf body style.
None of those options is a slam dunk, which is why we haven’t seen a Z7II iteration yet. I personally would have picked a combination of #1 and #3 (i.e. new form factor with higher pixel count). But that also produces a US$4000 camera with low sales volume.
One of Nikon’s problems is that they’ve done an excellent job in building out their FX product line. We currently have the Z5II, Zf, ZR, Z6III, Z8, and Z9, which is a pretty broad range of full frame products and options that share a common set of features and functions and really differ only on performance and UX. I’d argue that the FX line is near complete and just needs maintaining.
Which brings us back to DX. DX is not near complete. It’s also running mostly with older technology, as well. The biggest bang for the buck for Nikon would come in some form of Z30II, ZR Jr, Z70/90, and perhaps a 40mp ZfcII. But again, the issue Nikon has in DX really comes at the image sensor: they’ve been milking their 20mp creation for a decade now, and the DX image sensor now really needs refreshing.
The problem with that, of course, is “refresh for all” or “use multiple DX sensors”? Nikon doesn’t really want to do the latter, and the former introduces other issues. Frankly, Nikon has been punting this decision down the road, and additional punts at this point start to fall into making existing users think that “Nikon gave up on DX.” I’d argue that the two recent DX lens launches (16-50mm f/2.8 VR DX and 35mm f/1.7 DX) suggest otherwise, but the demand is for new DX cameras more than it is for more DX lenses.
Overall, it’s going to seem like a sparse year for new Z System cameras. But that’s been the case since 2021: we only get one or two new bodies a year, so a Z30II and Z9II would be par for Nikon’s current course.