Thom Hogan

In the past week I’ve touched on Nikon’s medium-term plans as well as what’s happening generally in the camera industry. The question I'm now getting even more than usual is “what’s Nikon’s future camera plans?”

Anticipating new Nikon products is always a risky business. While Nikon has a very specific engineering strategy and tactics that repeats, predicting the exact what and when is tough to get right. 

Here’s what I believe based upon my sources at the moment:

• The next Z System camera is almost certainly the Z30 iteration (call it the Z30II). Because of the RED acquisition and subsequent ZR design, there’s potential that this iteration turns out a little different than we might normally expect, as it could end up a ZR Junior. I expect this to be an anouncement sometime this summer or early fall.
• The most important upcoming Z System camera is the Z9II. I’m still hearing “end-of-year, start-of-next year” as the current target announce date, and this is delayed from the original schedule for reasons currently unknown, but almost certainly involving either the EXPEED or image sensor re-design (the most common thing I hear from sources is that Nikon didn’t quite hit their original global shutter goal and backed off to just a faster electronic shutter). The reason this camera is important is that it will establish the next generation of features and performance available in the Z System. And that’s a gating element for a number of other future products, unfortunately (e.g. any eventual Z5, Z6, or Z8 update).
• Beyond that, it gets very murky. I’m aware of several different ideas Nikon has considered and even prototyped, but none of those have gotten official approval that I know of. From the user base the two greatest demands currently are “Z7 iteration” and “higher-end DX.” Both those potential cameras interact with other products in the lineup, so that requires more top management buy in and that would have occurred during the top management discussions that occur with Nikon’s just ended fiscal year end. In other words, it might only be about now that additional models got green-lighted.

That said, Nikon repeats patterns. The one pattern I think we’d all like to see is a repeat of the D3/D300, D5/D500 parallel launch. Indeed, it would be the one thing I’d be strongly pursuing if I were in charge of Nikon’s product management. Ironically, the delay in the Z9II is what actually allows Nikon to consider another such parallel launch, as that would allow them to put EXPEED8 into a Z90 and sell it for the US$2500+ price point it’d likely need to be at. 

A dual FX/DX launch would give Nikon the quick re-use of EXPEED8 to keeps costs down, but it introduces a new problem: what’s the DX image sensor that goes with that? It would almost certainly have to be a variant of the Sony Semiconductor 26mp stacked sensor, which then puts that Z90 in the dreaded “only use of an image sensor” category and increases costs.

The other easily picked fruits in any potential future Nikon camera launch are these:

• The “simple” FX — Nikon experimented with a reduced complexity entry model (part of which led to the ZR user interface) I called the Z3. I believe a variant of that model is still on the table, as small and simple is strongly sellable at the moment. I doubt that we’d get back to a US$999 FX model this way, but this would still be a very affordable option should it happen. Moreover, it could be morphed into a fixed lens compact very easily, and Nikon also needs a high quality fixed lens compact.
• The 8K ZR — Basically take what was learned with the Z6III/ZR pairing and apply it one level higher, to the Z8 underpinnings. I suspect, however, that this would wait for EXPEED8 and whatever video options it adds.

You’ll notice that I didn’t put a Z7III into any of the above options. That’s because there are four angles Nikon could navigate to potentially satisfy Z7 upgrade requests:

1. Pixels — simply go with EXPEED7 and more pixels. This is the landscape/architecture option. Yes, the camera could be used for other things, but the design points would emphasize those two categories first and foremost. Indeed, quick rolling shutter for video would be a low priority. The fact that this hasn’t happened probably indicates that Nikon rejected this option.
2. Cheaper Z8 — Nikon is currently discounting the Z8 by US$900, which makes this idea troublesome, as that’s about the price point a Z7III with EXPEED7 and the current or modified image sensor would sit. That doesn’t accomplish much (it likely only picks up a few of the current Z7 and Z7II upgraders who didn’t make it to the Z8), though it does sustain the model.
3. New Form Factor — Stick with the current image sensor, put in the EXPEED7 processor, but use Sony’s A#C approach by putting the result in a smaller body with an offset viewfinder. This puts a new form factor in play that could find it’s way to other models in the future (e.g. Z5II iteration).
4. ZfII — Stick the Z7II image sensor into the Zf body and refine that body a bit. This solves both the Zf and Z7 iteration issues, though not all Z7/Z7II users would want the Zf body style.

None of those options is a slam dunk, which is why we haven’t seen a Z7II iteration yet.  I personally would have picked a combination of #1 and #3 (i.e. new form factor with higher pixel count). But that also produces a US$4000 camera with low sales volume. 

One of Nikon’s problems is that they’ve done an excellent job in building out their FX product line. We currently have the Z5II, Zf, ZR, Z6III, Z8, and Z9, which is a pretty broad range of full frame products and options that share a common set of features and functions and really differ only on performance and UX. I’d argue that the FX line is near complete and just needs maintaining. 

Which brings us back to DX. DX is not near complete. It’s also running mostly with older technology, as well. The biggest bang for the buck for Nikon would come in some form of Z30II, ZR Jr, Z70/90, and perhaps a 40mp ZfcII. But again, the issue Nikon has in DX really comes at the image sensor: they’ve been milking their 20mp creation for a decade now, and the DX image sensor now really needs refreshing. 

The problem with that, of course, is “refresh for all” or “use multiple DX sensors”? Nikon doesn’t really want to do the latter, and the former introduces other issues. Frankly, Nikon has been punting this decision down the road, and additional punts at this point start to fall into making existing users think that “Nikon gave up on DX.” I’d argue that the two recent DX lens launches (16-50mm f/2.8 VR DX and 35mm f/1.7 DX) suggest otherwise, but the demand is for new DX cameras more than it is for more DX lenses. 

Overall, it’s going to seem like a sparse year for new Z System cameras. But that’s been the case since 2021: we only get one or two new bodies a year, so a Z30II and Z9II would be par for Nikon’s current course. 

Well, not today, but a month from today, when version 1.6 launches on July 9th. 

Since it first appeared, I’ve complained to NPS about the US$3.99 a month charge for using NX MobileAir with multiple albums and more than 999 files. This was a bit like charging your best customers for taking images. At events and sporting events it was easy to exceed the “free” limit, and the lack of multiple albums meant you couldn’t organize your session, such as separating images out by quarter or half. 

Nikon quietly sent out a notice on June 3rd within the NX MobileAir app warning users about an issue if they weren’t updated to version 1.5 before the subscription mechanism shut down on June 9th. (Essentially, if you weren’t updated to 1.5 by June 9th, you’d either not be able to update to version 1.6 when it comes or lose all your on-mobile-device data.)

NX MobileAir has had and continues to have a range of Someone Not Paying Attention issues that make it far less useful than it could be. NX MobileAir should have the Show credits and Add hashtag capabilities that SnapBridge does (though we'd need user-editable hashtags). The iOS version still doesn’t have the save/load camera settings capability the Android version does. Many of the features, such as using NX MobileAir as a remote, only work on one (or few) cameras. Ironically NX MobileAir doesn’t support either Nikon Image Space or Nikon Imaging Cloud. 

Overall, Nikon’s software still seems to be a set of walled-off silos that never communicate. SnapBridge, NX MobileAir, and NX Field really should be a single, better designed, and better managed mobile app. It’s unclear why NX Tether isn’t simply a part of NX Studio, particularly since other products (such as the old Picture Control Utility) have found their way into that product. Finally, Nikon Image Space (NIS) and Nikon Imaging Cloud (NIC) seem like they don’t need to be separate (just have NIC write directly to NIS and sell extra cloud storage for NIS on the side). And let’s not forget that it’s been over two years now since Nikon acquired RED, and the RED software and firmware are still not integrated into Nikon’s download center.

So today? An eensy-teensy step forward for Nikon software, a smaller step for photographer kind.

I’m well behind on publishing full lens reviews at the moment, but that doesn’t mean that I haven’t been using those new lenses. Here are some brief comments about lenses that have reviews in progress:

• Nikon 16-50mm f/2.8 VR DX — Surprisingly not “sharper” than the kit lens wide open, but that’s at f/2.8 and f/2.8 instead of f/3.5 and f/5.6. Stop down, and yes, you’ll see a benefit. Use the kit lens for small, light kits, use this new mid-range zoom for a really solid DX workhorse. It’s on my Z50II a lot, and it’s not yet let me down. 
• Nikon 24-70mm f/2.8 S II — What was wrong with the original? Not much, though the LED display was all gimmick and no usefulness. What’s better with the new version? Really small things, like less focus noise while doing it faster. The new lens is clearly better, but most folk would be well-served by the original. I don’t see the II version as a lens you upgrade to from the original, but if you’re looking for arguably the best 24-70mm f/2.8 on the market, then you’ll find it here. 
• Nikon 35mm f/1.4 — Not my favorite focal length, so I haven’t been using it as much as some of the others. I was surprised to find how close to the 35mm f/1.8 S this lens is (at f/1.8). At this point, I’d tend to say which one you pick is a tossup, as each has some slight advantages as well as slight disadvantages versus the other. That wasn’t what I was expecting, so I need to look into that some more before publishing my final review.
• Nikon 35mm f/1.7 DX — This muffin sized lens is probably bigger than you’d think it should be, but it’s also near macro (at 1:2). That makes it a pretty versatile “normal” lens to put on a DX body, and I’ve been impressed with it in that respect. But remember, you won’t have VR, so watch your shutter speeds and handle your camera carefully.
• Nikon 58mm f/0.95 NOCT — I need to borrow this lens one more time to take some sample images, but this is probably the most well-corrected lens I’ve ever seen, particularly as you get to “real apertures” such as f/1.4 and smaller. It’s tricky nailing the focus point at f/0.95, since you’re doing that manually and there’s virtually no depth of field, so I suggest you set a black and white Picture Control and have Focus Peaking turned on.

Nikon’s mostly been hitting way more than singles each time they come up to bat with a new lens. A couple have been clear triples off the fence, one has been a grand slam, while the others are still all putting you into scoring position. Don’t be afraid of any Z-NIKKOR. Nikon’s upped their game in the mirrorless era, and I’m digging it.

Meanwhile, I’ve got quite a few third-party lenses in the queue, including:

• Tamron 35-100mm f/2.8 — I’m not giving up my Tamron 35-150mm f/2-2.8 for this new, smaller lens, as I have better background choices maxing out the aperture of the bigger lens. That said, I’m not unpleased with the 35-100mm; assuming you keep subjects out of the extreme corners, you’re going to find it remarkably useful and versatile as a portrait lens that’s easy to carry. 
• Tamron 150-500mm f/5-6.7 VC — I like it. A lot. Probably more than I do the Nikon 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6, even though I’m at a smaller aperture at every equivalent focal length with the Tamron. It’s a bigger and heavier lens than you might expect from the other Tamron telephoto zooms, and I find it too front-heavy on a Z50II, so make sure that you’re comfortable with how it handles. But optically, it does quite well.

Tamron, like Nikon, is hitting better than singles, though they really haven’t hit a three- or four-bagger yet. Given the relatively modest pricing in the Tamron lineup, solid lenses like the above almost make it into the “bargain” category. 

The Z9II was delayed. It’s unclear whether the delay is due to a new image sensor or a new EXPEED chip, but I thought I’d take a moment to explain what needs to be addressed with EXPEED.

Short version: processing pipeline bandwidth.

If you’re at all familiar with the progression of semiconductors, you know that each completely new generation is still following Moore’s law, which means transistors get smaller (smaller process size). Smaller can mean more, faster, or lower power. Engineers have to make a choice about how much of each benefit they choose. Once Apple got to some guaranteed battery charge level on their devices, they started balancing their Apple Silicon changes due process size reduction more towards faster, for instance.  

EXPEED7 was a large step downward in process size from EXPEED6. A very dramatic change as it turns out, and most of that appears to have been gone towards faster. Much of the Z9 generation benefits derived from that. 

However, it’s important to understand the internal structure of EXPEED, much like it is to understand how Apple Silicon’s internal structure is enabling things you don’t see on the Windows side yet. 

EXPEED7 uses Arm processors and standard GPUs for its computational power. In that respect, EXPEED7 was close to but a bit behind an average smartphone’s processing power at the time it was introduced. However, EXPEED is more than just a set of processing cores. It also contains three specific additional known components. One is supplied by Socionext, which mostly resolves around external data transport (including CFexpress support). A second is supplied by Nikon, and centers mostly around Picture Controls and everything that ties into them (which includes raw processing). And the third is supplied by intoPIX, which is where most of the video processing is done as well as the High Efficiency raw capabilities. 

From what I’ve seen in how Nikon has been able to update Z9 generation cameras, I’d say that the most likely issue that needs to be solved by EXPEED8 is internal processing pipeline bandwidth between the different IP modules. We know that the external bandwidth is high (e.g. recording to CFexpress reaches at least 800Mb/s). We know that the internal bandwidth for Picture Controls is high because the cameras have no problems generating 45mp files at 30 fps (essentially infinite buffer is possible). 

When people talk about things they want in a Z9II, almost all of them probably aren’t possible with EXPEED7 because of internal bandwidth limitations. For instance, pre-capture raw: the issue here isn’t the data transfer into the intoPIX portion of the EXPEED7 chip, it’s the fact that you also need to touch the Picture Control portion of the chip, as well (JPEG previews need to be written into the file). I’m pretty sure it’s the pass-back-and-forth nature of what the data would need to do that’s made things like pre-capture raw and even proxy recording for raw video that’s put a limit on what Nikon can do with the Z9 generation. 

When you add in things like examining the viewing stream for focus information and directing the lens and updating the viewfinder rendering, EXPEED7 is juggling a lot of balls that are using different parts of the internal components, and juggling is the right word here: you can’t control many balls simultaneously with one hand.  

No doubt this will be addressed in EXPEED8: smaller process, more cores, better communication and bandwidth between cores, and so on. 

Most of the user requests for something to change in the Z9II basically devolve into something that EXPEED7 would get overwhelmed by but EXPEED8 will likely address. In fact, outside of dynamic range, rolling shutter, and straight UI changes (e.g. changes to Save Menu Settings), almost every user request I’ve seen requires some work on the plumbing within EXPEED8 to accomplish correctly. Even things like applying user LUTs to video rendering in real time seem to fall into this category. So adding RED-things into EXPEED also comes into play for our next generation EXPEED.

I’m pretty sure that Nikon knows all the above (and more) and these items would have gone into the task list for creating EXPEED8. EXPEED, however, is at present a three-player dance (Nikon, Socionext, and intoPIX), which doesn’t play out as fast as a single player one, but Nikon’s done this dance before, so I’m confident that they’ll get things aligned again. 

I believe that the current seeming delay is probably mostly outside of Nikon’s full control: everyone’s having difficulties getting new chips onto fabs and produced in quantity at the moment. The supply chain involved with semiconductors is still not fully recovered—and now is getting another hit from the Iran war—so the Really Big Players (Apple, Nvidia, etc.) are getting the highest priority, and they are paying for that priviledge.

We’ll see what Nikon was up to at some point, but at the moment I’m guessing that Nikon won’t have a production-level supply of EXPEED8 until very late this year. (If I’m wrong, and they already have EXPEED8 in hand—again, I don’t think they do—then it’s a delay with image sensor that’s slowed the Z9II release.)

As for the wait, I’ll remind you of 2011. Nikon had been gearing up to release some key products when the earthquake and tsunami hit Sendei and then later that year floods shut down the Thailand plant. This was an externally imposed set of delays that forced them to cancel at least one key product and gave them time to change another significantly before it was introduced. Nikon engineering doesn’t sit on their hands when they’re waiting for something to resolve that’s outside their control. It’s entirely possible that a delay in getting EXPEED8 production to volume might have also given Nikon the opportunity to change image sensor, too (or vice versa). So I wouldn’t get too worried about an extra year before the expected Z9 update is released.

Meanwhile, the current Z8 and Z9 are still near state-of-the-art cameras in almost every aspect. Personally, I’m feeling no need to jump to Canon or Sony while waiting, as for everything I might want changed on a Z9 I have an equal-sized list for the Canon R1 or Sony A1. Indeed, I still feel like the bigger issue for Nikon right now is that there some lens gaps that still need filling. 

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So what are the big user requests for Z9II generation? The following isn’t a complete list, but the ones I commonly see, ordered from most requested to less requested.

• Raw capture for pre-release.
• Improved autofocus, more modes, better subject recognition, better background rejection.
• More dynamic range.
• Better viewfinder. Sometimes coupled with better real-time viewfinder LUT/white balance rendering.
• Better settings saving capabilities. 
• Proxy recording (record video to both slots).
• Higher frame rates (e.g. >20 fps).
• Higher flash sync. Related to better (or no) rolling shutter.

The remainder of requests tend to be isolated to a very specific use case or preference. A few of those are likely to come but have little true use impact (e.g. support CFe 4.0 directly for stills).  

Since I’m writing about lenses this week, let me address the lens question that keeps coming up over and over:

"I’ve read all your reviews and writing about the various Z-mount telephoto options, and I just don’t know how to choose. Can you help?"

Wait, what? You read everything I wrote and you didn’t come to a conclusion, and now you want me to make a conclusion for you? Yeah, that’ll work…

Seriously, here’s the thing that everyone gets hung up on: not knowing what they’re going to photograph. If you know what you’re photographing, you should know what focal length you need, and then you simply pick the least expensive lens (because that’s all you can afford) or the best performing lens (because you want optimal results).

Sports photographers know this, for sure. Every sport that we pros photograph has a different lens focal length requirement to get top notch photos to deliver to your client. We all have our basketball/ice hockey lenses, our football lenses, our soccer/lacrosse lenses, and others for each sport we cover. 

To put that into context, in a basketball or ice hockey arena, we’re in a fairly fixed position typically at one end of the action. We need wide angle (and preferably zoom) for the near action, and we will usually bring something to photograph action at the far end or through the transition area, which tends to be something more like a 70-200mm. 

With football, while it’s a wider field of play, it used to be that we could move fairly far up the sidelines and move with the line of scrimmage, so 300mm was about right. These days, we’re usually pushed to a smaller area near or around the end zone, and I find that I need a longer lens than I used to, as in 400mm, 500mm, or even 600mm (the latter is what one pro I know who works for one of the big agencies uses). But for teams where I still have full sideline access, a 120-300mm is a great lens with the right range. 

Soccer and Lacrosse use big fields and action is often far from you, so I always drag a 500/600mm lens to those events.

The bottom line is that I know what focal length I need for each of the events I cover, and I have the budget to own multiple lenses. 

The problem most readers face is that they want the most flexibility possible because they want something that works for virtually every telephoto use they can imagine. 

Well, if that last sentence describes you, then I have only three lenses for you need to choose from: the Nikon's 28-400mm f/4-8 VR, 100-400mm 4.5-5.6 VR S, or 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR (and on a Z8/Z9 you always have the DX crop to give you a faux 1.5x boost). Okay, I’ll name two more: the Tamron 50-400mm f/4.5-6.3 VC and 150-500mm f/5-6.7 VC. You probably choose between these five lenses by resolving the conflict of your budget versus your likelihood to actually carry the lens. Lenses that stay in your closet, backpack, or other bag are not useful, and I have no idea why you’d even let yourself get in a tizzy over choosing one.

If you do know exactly the common relationship between you and subject (auto/motorcycle racing, individual sport, full access to positioning a safari vehicle, walking safari, etc.), then you should buy the best lens at that focal length you can afford. For me in Africa (I control position of my vehicle), that’s the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S. I simply am never worried about my images with that lens. It’s magical at 400mm and f/2.8, it’s really good at 540mm (TC engaged), and I still get a very usable image if I have to stretch to DX (faux 810mm).

If you don’t have the budget to get the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S, but 400mm is the focal length you need, then you get the quite excellent 400mm f/4.5 VR S instead. 

However, the lens you need may require more flexibility because you want it work for differing situations than that fixed safari example I just gave, and we’re back to my 28-400mm, 100-400mm, and 180-600mm answer. 

Typically coupled with the telephoto questions I get is “what if I used a 1.4x or 2x teleconverter?” 

You won’t like me answer: don’t. Actually, it’s more like “you won’t.” In most situations where you’d decide to use that teleconverter you either (1) brought the wrong lens (e.g. 70-200mm instead of 100-400mm), or (2) you really don’t have time and don’t want to be mounting/unmounting a teleconverter. Unless the teleconverter is built-into the lens and can be engaged by a switch, you probably shouldn’t be relying on one. 

All that said, it’s difficult to select a “bad” telephoto lens in the current Z System choices. The worst you can usually do is select the “wrong” telephoto lens (e.g. not the focal length you really needed). This is a really, really important thing to understand right now. There are no “bad” telephoto lenses in Nikon’s or Tamron’s lineup. Yes, they have some differences, but you start your pick by figuring out focal length, then looking at things like weight, size, maximum aperture, closest focus distance, and cost.

Which brings me to this: Why don’t I use the 400mm f/4.5 VR S I suggested you try? It’s a really good lens, probably all that most of you really need at the long end. However, I put up with the weight difference because I value that faster f/2.8 aperture plus the built-in teleconverter, which gives me a more flexible lens. Note that I didn’t write “because the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S is optically better.” It is, but only by a bit in terms of sharpness. The standout characteristic is the out of focus areas at f/2.8 for the more expensive lens versus the same for the less expensive f/4.5. I actually think that most amateurs probably would prefer the lighter weight and easier handling of the f/4.5 lens, and not really miss the things that I value on the f/2.8 one. And, of course, there’s the price difference, which is considerable.

Most people I consult with on telephoto lenses are overthinking things. They’re too worried about missing out on a small gain and not paying enough attention to how (and whether) they’ll use the lens. 

I know I write about “optimal data capture” all the time, and I put that into practice as often as possible for my own work. However, I also need to point out that there’s sub-optimal—which none of the current Nikon/Tamron telephoto options really are—near optimal, and optimal. You get maybe 90% of the way to “optimal” with almost any currently available telephoto choice in the Z System. (I put optimal in quotes in the last sentence because aperture and focal length, if not what you need, would make your choice less-than-optimal.) This wasn’t really the case with the old F-mount, where we had a number of sub-optimal and mediocre choices to wade through.

Finally, note that there are some real “value” choices in the telephoto lineup for the Z-mount. In particular, the surprising 28-400mm f/4-8 whose big “sin” is basically just its small maximum aperture. But also the 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR, which is flexible and gives quite reasonable performance at 600mm. Also, the two Tamron zooms and the Nikon 100-400mm do quite well optically. Notice something about all five I just mentioned? They’re flexible lenses in some way, too. 

So I guess my final bit of advice is this: start by pickup up one of these five flexible options. Master your use of it. Then, and only then, would you need to start getting obsessive about whether there might be a better option for you, but by then you’ll know what it really is you need both in focal length and probably in aperture.

This week Nikon introduced Zf firmware version 3.01, Z9 firmware version 5.32, and Nikon Z50II version 1.04. All are small bug fix updates, and each fixes two small issues (only one is the same on both updates).

Update: the 24-50mm f/4-6.3 also got a small firmware fix, and now is on version 1.02.

I'll answer the headline question up front: not really. Not at this time (but read through the entire article).

I'll posit an answer for Nikon, too: I don't believe that Nikon thinks that they're so much a threat, but rather they are disturbed that others are benefiting from Nikon's intellectual property and what that implies for the future.

The headline question comes from a reader, who also wonders what the real story is behind Nikon's sudden legal effort. As they pointed out, the vast majority of the lenses sold by the camera makers are zooms, not primes. The "rule of thumb" at dealers is that most customers buy two lenses and that's it. Both tend to be zooms, because convenience and extensive capability are their two top goals. 

Those of you reading this are likely to have ten or more lenses in your gear closet (I know this from site reader surveys). Yes, you bought some zooms, but you're supplementing them with a variety of primes, and now some of those primes might be of Chinese origin. This is one reason why I wrote my piece the other day: Nikon's legal action could seriously erode support from Nikon's very best customers, and those customers do Nikon's best marketing. You can see that on the Internet by just how much discussion is going on about this topic in the various fora, which in turn are being fed by headlines in the news sections, and some of those are absolutely clickbait (e.g. "Nikon in Revenge Mode: Third-Party Z-Mount Lenses Vanish from Shelves"). 

Thing is, we've been through this before, though with little legal action (other than Nikon suing Sigma over violation of a VR patent). During the late SLR and DSLR eras, Sigma, Tamron, and Tokina were constantly reverse engineering lens mount communications and providing third-party lens options. And every now and then an update to an existing camera or an entirely new camera would change something slightly in mount communications and I'd get a slew of "how do I fix this" questions, plus you'd see "Nikon broke my [Third-Party] lens" posts. The lens company in question would (usually) eventually come up with a firmware update that fixed the problem, but back then we didn't have ways of doing that in the field, so the lens had to go back to manufacture to get new firmware. Nikon's customer support line was on the front lines constantly having to deal with the customer question when they knew nothing about the lens that was having trouble.

I know that Nikon didn't like that. Almost always the finger was pointed at Nikon as intentionally doing something to break compatibility. In my talks with Nikon engineers and product managers, though, the answer was always something akin to "we just wanted to improve our product; we don't test against third party lenses." 

I suspect that Nikon now sees third party lenses as a potential support issue if they're not licensing the mount communications from Nikon. Even there, we recently had a problem with at least a couple of licensed Tamron lenses when a camera firmware update was released, but this was resolved by both parties quickly, as there was official communication going on between the organizations behind the scenes. 

I know that when the Zfc was introduced, Nikon was actually supportive of Viltrox's lenses for the mount, particularly in Asia. The Zfc would have been a problematic mistake in Asia if there was only one small Nikon prime for it. As it was, Nikon had to point to two FX lenses (28mm f/2.8 and 40mm f/2), which don't exactly fit in a nice 35mm or 50mm equivalent box. 

Somewhere along the way Nikon decided that they would license the mount. That Cosina (Voigtlander) and Tamron were the first two to sign on isn't surprising, as these companies have worked with Nikon on an OEM basis way back into the film era and had close relationships. I think it was Nikon deciding that everyone making a lens for the Z-mount using the communications protocols should be a licensee that things started to break. 

You might note that Z-mount versions of Tamron lenses tend to be about US$30 more than the E-mount versions. I don't believe this is due to sales volume or special parts needed for the Z-mount. I suspect that it's because Nikon is charging a small per lens licensing fee. At US$30 to the consumer, that would imply something significantly less than US$10 a lens. On a US$1000+ lens, that's not a big deal and not likely to change demand. But what happens on a US$200 lens? You start distorting pricing upwards enough to potentially impact sales. The Chinese have been using pricing to drive sales, and I suspect that they're balking at paying a mount fee (it seems clear that Viltrox and Nikon were talking before the suit was filed). When you also add in the potential tariff hits, I suspect the rice counters in Shanghai and Hong Kong began complaining about bottom lines and cash flows. 

Personally, I was never a fan of the third-party lenses in the F-mount. The only time I'd opt for one was when it was the only choice, and even then I'd hesitate. That's because the mount logistics just kept causing issues, first with focus, then with VR, then with... well, you get the idea. Mount licensing has the potential to put that kind of problem behind us, as the quick fix for the Tamrons showed. If that means US$30 more a lens, I'm all for it. I believe that's Nikon's stance, too, but I'm reading a lot between the lines here.

Bonus: We've already seen issues with the Chinese reverse engineering. For the most part that doesn't show up for still photo use, but I've seen multiple problems with video autofocus and aperture control on several third party lenses that aren't mount licensed.