Nikon Z System News and Commentary
Nikon's Statement About Pricing
Issued May 23rd: "At Nikon, we remain committed to providing the highest quality imaging products and value to our customers. Due to the recent tariffs, a necessary price adjustment for products will take effect on June 23, 2025. We will be carefully monitoring any tariff developments and may adjust pricing as necessary to reflect the evolving market conditions. We wish to thank our customers for their understanding and know that we are taking every possible step to minimize the impact on our community."
Multiple dealers tell me that they have several pages worth of new price adjustments that will go into effect on June 23rd. I'll repeat my earlier suggestion with a slight modifier: if you're interested in any Nikon lens sourced in China, now would be the time to buy it. Those lenses are:
- 17-28mm f/2.8
- 20mm f/1.8 S
- 24mm f/1.7 DX
- 24mm f/1.8 S
- 24-50mm f/4-6.3
- 28-75mm f/2.8
- 28-400mm f/4-8 VR
- 35mm f/1.8 S
- 50mm f/2.8 MC
- 70-180mm f/2.8
- 85mm f/1.2 S
- 85mm f/1.8 S
- 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR
- 400mm f/4.5 VR S
- 600mm f/6.3 PF VR S
- 800mm f/6.3 PF VR S
I'm told that NikonUSA isn't just slapping a tariff percentage increase on their pricing. It appears that their word usage is accurate: "price adjustment." That appears to indicate that Nikon is willing to absorb some of the tariff for the time being. That also may be because of inventory already in the US (which would imply another adjustment may be necessary in the future).
Nikon's recent year-end financial disclosure, along with their forecast for the coming year (April 2025 through March 2026), indicates that Nikon is once again chasing market share. That's probably one reason why they're willing to absorb some of the tariff for the time being.
This, however, is not the last we'll hear about "price adjustments" this year, for sure. Nikon manufactures in four countries with different tariffs (both current and implied by the on-again-off-again nature of the Trump Tariff Taxes). Negotiations would have to settle on a fixed rate that can be predicted for four different countries, plus Nikon will have to re-evaluate global market size and what they want to do about the changes that occur in that as the US imports fewer products. My prediction is that we'll see multiple price adjustments between now and the year-end holidays, and then some sales of overbuilt inventory during the holidays. Guessing how much you'll pay in the future for any item is just that, a guess.
Spring 2025 Buying Recommendations
As far as I know, there won't be any new Z System cameras this spring and summer. I don't anticipate any announcement (other than perhaps a lens or accessories) from Nikon until the August/September time frame, meaning essentially "fall delivery."
Many of you are trying to get your gear in shape for your summer holidays, so keep the above in mind. Here's a few other things I'd say about buying the Z System right now:
- In stock at existing prices shouldn't be ignored. That's particularly true for lenses, and even more so for lenses manufactured in China (see list of where Nikon makes lenses). Why lenses? (a) Nikon is the midst of restructuring their glass/lens manufacturing, including new plants that aren't yet open; (b) Nikon gets some lenses on an OEM basis from Tamron, who's moving some of their production out of China; and (c) Nikon has an overstock on many lenses at the moment, and I don't think they're in a hurry to up their lens production, even on popular ones.
Overall, Nikon's still trying to figure out how to maneuver the tariff tango (though note that NikonUSA has announced "price adjustments" starting June 23rd; see previous story). They've also now pointed out the potential for earnings impacts at a top-level. Some form of tariff-induced change now should be considered a permanent fixture, not a temporary adjustment. Even at its lowest form (10% new tariff), that's still too much for most companies to absorb without adjusting pricing. We could be in for a rise in list prices that's mitigated by instant rebates trying to move any larger-than-wanted inventory, in which case pricing for some items might seem not to have adjusted, but I think that's a short term thing. I wouldn't count on that staying true long-term. Which brings me back to "stock at existing prices" being something you shouldn't ignore. There are some good bargains there. - Buy the Z9 generation cameras. If you don't know what those are, here's the list: Z50II, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, Z9, and Zf. Yes, I know the Z5, Z6II, and Z7II look very tempting at the current rebate pricing (US$1000, US$1400, and US$1800 respectively). They're even very fine cameras in their own right, and probably more than enough camera for many. However, I hear from people buying Z System cameras every day and I hear what they're frustrated with or complaining about. Many (if not most) of those complaints go away with the Z9 generation. In particular the focus performance, but there are other things that people find helpful, too. That new Picture Control button on the Z50II and Z5II should really appeal to someone wanting out-of-camera images (JPEGs), as it surfaces a primary tool in a way that is fast and direct (and can be customized).
Sure, if you're only photographing landscapes and cityscapes at small apertures with lots of depth of field, then the focus performance of the Z7II isn't going to bother you and you'll get results exactly as good as the Z8/Z9 for that, but that one time that you're suddenly dragged into being your family event's photographer will tax you ;~). Moreover, I'd argue that for static landscapes/cityscapes, the pixel shift on the Z6III and Zf would produce a better result for blowing up large (96mp deBayered instead of 45mp Bayer).
On the DX front, the Z50II is only US$50 more than the Zfc, but there's just so much more to it that it exposes just how much you value looks (retro dials and faux leather colors) over substance.
Despite some intriguing pricing, I'd say you need to know why it is that you're going to buy a previous generation camera over the newer ones, and you need to be pretty sure that something about that previous generation won't be frustrating to you. - Full frame US$1000-2100 is jam-packed at the moment. Nikon (and other makers) are fishing for more full frame customers right now. There's never been a broader and deeper set of choices at the entry to high-consumer level. Z5 US$1000. Z6II US$1400. Z5II US$1700. Zf and Z7II US$1800. Z6III US$2100. That's seven Nikon models spread across a fairly narrow pricing range (all but one a 24mp camera). Simply put, the Z6III is the best of this bunch, the Z5II remarkably close. (Note both are Z9 generation; see previous bullet.) If you're buying a kit lens along with the camera, the discounts with the Z6III make it even more tempting compared to the Z5II with the same lens. If you're not buying one of those two cameras, you have to ask yourself what are truly willing to give up to spend less money. On specs, the Z6II looks like it might be worth the US$300 discount compared to the Z5II. In actual hand and practice, though, I'd be disappointed with what I could do with the Z6II far faster than with the Z5II.
- The best all-round deals right now are... The Z50II with the two lens kit, the Z5II body (if you have existing lenses), or the Z6III with the 24-70mm f/4 lens.
Given the price changes coming June 23rd, you need to seriously consider your spring/summer buying now, or risk paying more by delaying your decision.
Out With the Old Year, In With the New
Nikon released their fiscal year results last Thursday and at the surface level there's not a lot to say. They had some ups and downs across all their divisions. Particularly for the Imaging division that makes the Z System cameras, the year-over-year revenue was up, but the year-over-year profits were down.
Some of the "down" has to do with a write down that Nikon took against Mark Roberts Motion Control (the UK robot arm maker Nikon bought previously) and both the acquisition and a financial loss at RED (the video camera maker Nikon bought this year). But hidden away in the details is another reason why Nikon didn't quite make their forecasted numbers for Imaging: they didn't sell as many lenses as expected (1.31m units instead of 1.35m). Yes, 40k units doesn't sound like a lot, but if those were higher end lenses they expected to sell, it easily explains a lowered profit. None of this, however, is a big thing. Companies have minor misses and adjustments like these all the time. All this I would regard as pretty much business as usual.
What struck me were two things:
- Inventory for Imaging has built to 98.2b yen, up from 74.3b a year ago. Inventory has been rising every year for awhile, and is now double what it was four years ago. Given Nikon's overall Imaging sales revenue, this seems like a lot to carry over, and I have to wonder why. It's possible that Nikon has been pre-building something, it's possible that they now have a bigger inventory because of RED, but I suspect that some of the products just weren't selling at the demand level Nikon anticipated. I'll come back to that thought in a bit.
- In Nikon's estimates for camera unit volume next year, they're saying they'll sell 950k units, up from 850k in the year just closed.
That's a whopping 12% increase year-to-year. They haven't published that optimistic a future unit volume in a long, long time. Moreover, they're saying they'll go from a slightly sub-13% market share to a solid 14% market share in that same twelve months. That, too, is the most optimistic I've seen them. What this tells me is that they expect a pending new model to do quite well. What model that might be is open to speculation, of course, but it has to be a model that's capable of selling 10k units a month. Also, given that they expect revenue to be flat, I think we can rule out a high end model ;~). Z3V anyone?
Nikon didn't say all that much about the tariff situation. Indeed, of the major camera and lens vendors, it seems that Nikon is the only one that hasn't issued a specific official statement about what's likely to come. I still expect price increases in June here in the US, but I also—given the inventory situation I mentioned above—still expect Instant Rebate sales, it just might not be across a wide range of products or with as big a discount, but rather a little more targeted.
Lest anyone read the above as negative in any way, I'd say this: the rest of Nikon should be thankful that Imaging is executing so well. While the profit is down—not really due to camera sales—I see pretty much everything they did during the fiscal year as being positive. You can't acquire an entire new company without some costs, and it appears that one reason why RED was available is that it currently wasn't making a profit. It'll take Nikon time to digest RED and get it on a better footing.
By the way, Nikon seems to think similarly to me: there is no real possible unit volume market growth coming in ILC. Nikon projects that only 5.8m units will sell globally across all vendors in 2030, which is down from the year just completed.
