Predicting Nikon's iteration cycle is currently about as accurate as your friendly Taro card reading. I'll give it a try, anyway. However, since only a few Z System cameras have been updated so far, and because the waits have been variable, my predictions are going to be simple (and potentially wrong).
Here's what Nikon has done so far in mirrorless:
Back in the DSLR era we saw an extended period where consumer cameras iterated every year, while higher models had two year cycles (rotated as small update, big update for the top pro models). In the last ten years that eroded to something less predictable as Nikon scaled back their DSLR efforts and began their concentration on mirrorless.
It seems likely at this point that most Z System cameras are on expected four year update cycles. That predicts:
- 2030 — ZRII
- 2028 — Z50III, Z6IV
- 2027 — ZfII, Z8II
- 2026 — Z30II
- overdue — Z7III, Z9II, ZfcII (bold indicates potential EXPEED8 cameras)
When a product is overdue on that prediction cycle it's likely because either Nikon didn't originally plan an update for that model, or they've changed their thinking about that model and are making a major shift in its design approach. It currently seems unlikely that Nikon will discontinue any of the ten current models (ZR, Zf, Zfc, Z30, Z50II, Z5II, Z6II, Z7II, Z8, Z9). But it’s likely that they'll make substantive shifts in what some models do in the future.
I'm on record as predicting:
The Z5 may not get an update. Nikon milked the D600 for 10+ years, and the Z5 still has the D600's image sensor, which keeps costs way down. Alternatively, a Z5II wouldn't appear until a Z4 can take its place as a low-cost entry model.I was wrong on this. The Z5II appeared about six months after I originally wrote that.- The Z7III update is linked with the Z8II update. Both can't be 45mp/EXPEED7 cameras. Scenario #1: Z7III becomes a 61mp+ slow-working landscape/travel camera. Scenario #2: Z7III waits for the Z8II to become fast 61mp+/EXPEED8 camera before it can take over the 45mp/EXPEED7 slot.
- The Z9II was delayed from its original planned 2026 launch. This apparently was due to a delay in delivery of a chip, though it’s unknown what chip that was.