The primary candidates: Z30, Z50 II, Z5 II, Z6 III, and Z7 III. The mystery candidates: Z90, Z8, Zf. Anything else seems highly unlikely. So let's consider just the things that would have some likelihood before I present my guess:
- Z30 — Absolutely prototyped and ready to go into production. The problem is that the supply chain shortages were already appearing when decision time came. The decision obviously was to funnel parts to higher end cameras with bigger profit margins. The problem now is whether the design will age well when Nikon finally feels that they might be able to handle this higher volume camera, or whether they need to go back and tweak/refine.
- Z50 II — Technically, the Zfc took over the Z50 II release. Timing and feature/performance changes of the Zfc were exactly what they would have been for a Z50 II. So the Z50 II is sitting out an iteration cycle, it appears.
- Z5 II — This is a tricky one. The Z5 already had many of the Z6 II changes, but using a repurposed, older image sensor (the D750 one). The one thing that would definitely push a Z5 forward is a new image sensor (and new EXPEED), but those are costly things for what needs to remain an entry camera.
- Z6 III — With Sony jumping to a 33mp image sensor in the A7 Mark IV, the pressure is on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that in some way. This is a key camera that should have two-year update cycles, so fall 2022 would be the date to watch. The questions are these: what would Nikon have thought needed to be improved with the Z6 II back in 2020 when they started this project, and did the pandemic slow down their ability to do those things?
- Z7 III — Similar to the Z6 III: With Sony jumping to a 61mp image sensor in the A7R Mark IV, the pressure was already on for Nikon to match or leap-frog that. Like the Z6, the Z7 should be on two-year update cycles that trigger next in fall 2022, so the question again is what did Nikon set to work on back in 2020?
- Z90 — I keep getting hints that Nikon has looked at making a top-end DX mirrorless camera. What I haven't heard is the commitment to do so. Canon and Fujifilm are going to force Nikon's hand here, and at least one of those will be a stacked-sensor model. Thus, the simple question now that we have a Z9 is does Nikon have a DX stacked sensor source they can use to build the DX sibling to the Z9?
- Z8 — While people keep hypothesizing on this model, I haven't heard a peep about it nearing production. Even under the D3/D700 scenario that many envision could produce a baby Z9 in Z8 form, one would expect a significant delay before Nikon would do so. Demand for the Z9 is off the charts, and Nikon isn't likely to produce a lower cost, smaller model until they've extracted a full set of tithe from the Nikon faithful. Moreover, there are three ways a Z8 could go: (1) mini Z9; (2) "h" type version of Z9 (lower pixel count, faster response); and (3) high pixel count.
- Zf — Unfortunately (that's my view, maybe not yours) the Zfc "success" likely gave added wind towards making a full frame version. It's easy enough to do, as the Z5 would form the base for a Zf much like the Z50 did so for the Zfc. You don't need EXPEED7 or a new image sensor for a nostalgia, casual camera, after all.
Okay, that's the likely potential cameras Nikon might introduce in 2022, but what are the odds, and why? I'll outline this in the likely probability they'll happen in 2022. I'll use a straight odds here, e.g. 4:1 means a 80% chance of happening, as there's four chances in five it will happen:
- Z6 III is 9:1 (90%) — The Canon R6 and Sony A7 Mark IV just make this a must do on Nikon's part. The only question I'd have is whether we get the announcement on the two-year boundary in fall, or if this product slid a bit in development due to the pandemic issues and becomes a late 2022, early 2023 launch. I'd guess 24mp stacked (or improved readout) before 33mp, but either is possible.
- Z7 III is 6:1 (85%) — Likewise, the Canon R5 and Sony A7R Mark IV (and likely Mark V in 2022) make this another must do on Nikon's part to stay competitive. There's the easy path (just add EXPEED7 and all it provides) and the less easy path (new image sensor). It's the less easy path that lowers the odds, as any new sensor juggling in this next round of releases could get tricky for them due to fab availability. Sensor cost is a little less a factor on the Z7 III, so there's the possibility of it simply using the Z9 sensor but with a performance scaled down due to the body limitations (power and heat, basically).
- Z30 is 1:1 (50%) — Nikon still needs volume to be truly competitive, and with their current "entry" camera holding at US$850 (body), that's not likely going to get them there. That said, there is an alternative to a Z30: just lower the Z50 price significantly, which is why, coupled with the supply chain issues, this camera isn't a lock for 2022. It's really tough to call this one from outside Nikon, as the Z30 is essentially a bean counter decision, and bean counters don't leak information.
- Zf is 1:1 (50%) — The highish odds are solely because of the ease in producing it. There are no technology innovations here, it's basically a design problem, and one that Nikon's solved twice in the past and is getting better at. On the flip side, this is not a volume launch, or a critical competitive product, it's a "milk some profits out of the legacy" product, something Nikon likes to do from time to time. As such, this kind of product gets done and approved through a different mechanism than the competitive analysis driving the main line. However, I think the "success" of the Zfc coupled with the fact that the Df continued to be sold in the DSLR line tells us that Nikon likes having this kind of camera around. It's not a camera that goes on sale, but one that produces a modest, predictable, profitable volume.
- Z90 is 1:4 (20%) — A Z90 fits nicely into all the themes of Nikon's current strategy (even lenses, as the primary driver of this camera will be wildlife ;~). The big question is whether the D300/D500 crowd would move over—remember, there's a 400mm PF lens coming—and whether there's an image sensor that can be put in place that has the necessary performance this model would need to have. Does Fujifilm have an exclusivity lock on the upcoming APS-C stacked sensor from Sony Semiconductor? That's one of the reasons why I rate the odds so low.
The rest of the candidate cameras have such low odds that I just don't consider them likely in 2022. So let's examine why I think those cameras are misses for 2022:
- Z50 II — The big issue here is that this camera really needs sensor VR. And maybe a new image sensor. Otherwise I can't imagine much in the way of performance/feature tweaks that would make a new generation worthwhile over just some firmware improvements. Nikon has plenty of other big technology needs in the lineup, and I doubt that they'd be spending their biggest efforts on this model. This is the D5xxx all over again: small iterations over time to hold a position.
- Z5 II — I suspect that the reason Nikon placed this entry camera so high in capability in the first place is that they needed it to be on the market for a long time, much like the D600 and D750 strategy were in DSLRs. Even if Canon targets an RP replacement against the existing Z5, the Z5 should hold up fine. A few firmware tweaks would hold its position. Sony seems reluctant to put a new full frame camera near the US$1000 price point, as Nikon clearly has shown they're willing to do.
- Z8 — Here we have model proliferation problems. The full frame lineup is currently Z5, Z6 II, Z7 II, Z9, with the Z6 and Z7 as holdovers establishing middle price points. That's six models, and more than enough. If a Zf shows up, it becomes seven models (Zf, Z5, Z6 II, Z6 III, Z7 II, Z7 III, Z9), which is as broad a line as Nikon's going to want until the volume rises significantly above where it is. One could argue that the Z7 III and Z8 live in somewhat the same position under some scenarios, so a Z8 could replace a Z7 III, but I think that just updating the Z6/Z7 body and including newer technologies in it is probably the right approach for now, and the one Nikon would likely have taken. I'm guessing that the Z8 would be a new image sensor (either the Z9 one or a high-megapixel one) and that adds a complication to let it happen in 2022.
Surprisingly, there are a number of different ways Nikon can move next. How they move will tell us a lot about how aggressive they're being. A Zf is not an aggressive move. But a Z8 or Z90 would be definitely aggressive moves. And then there's exactly what the Z6 III and Z7 III end up being. Are they just EXPEED7 in the current bodies with some other modest improvements, or (my hope) are they improved bodies and performance, as well? Or are they both those things plus new image sensors? Again, Nikon had choices, and it will be interesting to see which ones they made.
______________________
Just a reiteration: camera makers generally aren't reacting to a competitor's most recent model introduction. Because of the long lead times on many things, they're targeting where they think the competition will be, and typically two to four years in advance. Moreover, each camera company is trying to build out a line of products that allows them to up sell, or in a few cases, side sell from a competitor. Because of the coopetition notion that reigns in Japanese consumer electronics, most of the camera companies have some inkling of what the others are doing, though they might not know specific details.
I do know two things: (1) Nikon wishes to be aggressive and faster at iterating than they have been (but the pandemic intruded); and (2) they really do wish to get to shutterless throughout the lineup. Put those two things together and one could see them centering on three sensors: 20mp DX stacked, 24mp FX stacked, and 45mp FX stacked. I don't know that's what they'll do, but the only way you'll achieve #2 and keep costs down is to push the entire manufacturing volume to stacked.
Finally, note one thing: I've written that the Z9 is a transformative camera, much like the D1 over 20 years ago. The problem, however, is that this transformation probably requires that you use stacked image sensors in order to get the performance necessary to remove the mechanical shutter. At least in the short term. Converting an entire line to shutterless is going to take some time (and R&D expense). That said, the handwriting has been on the wall for some time regarding mechanical shutters, so I see the removal of mechanical shutters as inevitable. Next up: mechanical sensor image stabilization. You could do 3-axis today simply with oversampling, though this increases the sensor size and cost. But we're going to see it, it's just a matter of when.
