I don't usually make predictions these days. I try to live in the present as much as possible, and so should you.
That said, there's enough fantasy flotsam floating around the net at the moment that I think a more considered approach needs to be presented. So here are my Z System 2026 predictions:
- Z9II, but later than you expect. There's little doubt Nikon has been working on this, and a few bits and pieces of information have indeed trickled in, but I'd be surprised if a new flagship makes it out in time for the 2026 Winter Olympics (February). It may miss the World Cup, too (June/July). Word is that the camera is still moving forward, but that key parts are arriving in quantity later than originally planned. Maybe we'll see mules in Torino or the soccer stadia.
- Z30II, but not named what you think. It's always difficult to outguess Nikon marketing; they've changed naming near last minute before. I get the sense, however, that any Z30 refresh now has to fit in with the RED bridging, so maybe ZR30? That doesn't exactly make sense, so perhaps ZRc (cropped sensor letter added to match ZF/Zfc).
- Maybe Z7III, but that still seems iffy. The real issue is that Nikon doesn't want to undercut the Z8, which is still selling well. Doing the Z6III type of update for the Z7 would seem to put Z8 sales in jeopardy. That said, once the Z9II iterates, that's going to put some Z8 sales on hold as people will expect a Z8II making the same or similar changes not long after (I'm not sure that will happen, though). Nikon will want to use any Z8 sales weakness as the timing for a Z7III drop. The real question, though, is "which Z7III?" I know of two mules that were out there at some point, and they had different image sensors. If it were me in charge, I'd target a better EVF, Z9-generation, 45mp Z7III launching in late 2026. That's the right timing for parts re-use, among other things. But it's not me in charge, so who knows? Bottom line: I know of no information that indicates that a Z7III is iminent.
I'm not really expecting any other Z System cameras from Nikon in 2026. Nikon's yearly ILC iteration since the pandemic has been 1, 2, 2, and 2, and my predictions above are again 2 (with a possible +1). As much as some might want a dual drop (Z9II with Z90), I don't see a higher end DX camera coming until Nikon commits to their next APS-C sensor, and I'm pretty sure that hasn't happened yet. There's a case to be made for Nikon using a one-off sensor for any Z90, but I just don't see them doing that at the lower end of the lineup where keeping costs down through parts re-use is absolutely necessary.
- The missing telephoto arrives. You and I may disagree what's missing, but I'm saying the 100-300mm range really needs more addressing. There have been plenty of rumors that the 120-300mm f/2.8 is about to make a leap from F to Z. The fact that it hasn't already appeared tells me that Nikon has something up their sleeve there (e.g. 120-300mm f/2.8 TC, or a change in focal length, perhaps even a faster aperture). I wouldn't be surprised to see this show up as a PF (phase fresnel) lens, which would also explain the delay.
- The next "Two" arrives. This one isn't difficult to predict now that we've seen what Nikon did with the 24-70mm f/2.8. Nikon has a long history of updating the two key f/2.8 zooms, and thus the 70-200mm f/2.8 VR S II certainly is coming soon. Nikon will want the pro base (Z9II, 24-70mm f/2.8 II, 70-200mm f/2.8 II) is available together to show off what’s new, particularly in focus performance.
- RED-ready will dominate the rest of the new lenses. We know that Nikon has committed to a line of Cinema lenses, and we really need to see them playing out in 2026 in order to boost ZRc, ZR, and RED sales. I don't know how many Nikon will get to in 2026, but I expect at least two new primes, and probably three. Plus there's the potential for a DX lens, too.
Beyond the above lenses, Nikon is currently a bit pushed on capacity. The new Japanese lens plant is now under construction, so Nikon has their own supply constraints at the moment.
- The ZR will lead the 2026 firmware parade. The Z8, and then the Z6III led the 2025 firmware parade, with everything else building on that and then picking off a new piece or two. I believe that Nikon now sees all the things that need to change on the video side and that will be driving firmware updates during the year. That doesn't mean we won't get still-function updates—even the ZR needs some of those—it just means that the Z9-generation camera they're looking most to now extend capabilities for is the ZR, and every other Z9-generation camera will get some spillover from that (and maybe a bit of Z9II goodies eventually, too).
Will there be surprises?
I hope so. A nice surprise would be a compact camera, for instance, and that's well within the realm of parts reassembly coupled with a new compact built-in lens (e.g. 20mp DX, EXPEED7, big bright LCD). But I think most of Nikon's surprises for 2026 are really going to come in what the Z9II actually entails. As I noted in my other article, Nikon needs a new statement of technologies, and the Z9II is the camera to lead that.
The good news is that the basic lineup (Z50II, Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, and Z9) is really solid moving into the new year, and keeping the Zfc, Z5, Z6II, and Z7II around gives Nikon some price incentive models to still play with. So Nikon doesn't really need to do a lot in 2026, as they're starting with a really solid foundation of products. 2027, on the other hand, is going to be a year Nikon needs to scramble more in. Assuming a Z9II in 2026, then user expectations would be that the new tech starts trickling down the next year.