Nikon likes to follow patterns that are known to work. Will they do that again in 2026?
What's the pattern, you ask?
- 2016 — D5, D500
- 2007 — D3, D300
- 2001/2002 — D1h/D1x, D100
Some argue that there were other "duals" that were attempted (D3x, D90, or the ill-fated D4, D400 where one got postponed and the other cancelled partly due to the earthquake, tsunami, and flood).
Everyone pretty much expects a Z9II in 2026 at this point. Canon is known to be readying their R7 Mark II. Would Nikon make another dual technology-based set of announcements as a result?
I see some signs and options that point to that possibility. First, the Z9 generation of full frame cameras is now basically complete. Yes, I know those of you who want a Z7III are shouting at me at the moment, but I've said it before, the Z7III isn't a likely camera given 24mp Pixel shift shooting and a Z8 standing in the way. The Z8 needs to upscale in some fashion before a Z7III really feels likely. Indeed, I'd tend to say that a ZfII is more likely to be the Z7III replacement at this point, as moving the 45mp image sensor to that platform makes more sense than building a direct Z6III/Z8 competitor.
Should Nikon (finally) provide the Z9 firmware update that catches it back up, the lineup of Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, and Z9 would be compelling and complete. What would be needed next is a new technology statement to start the whole process over again. That's exactly the points where Nikon has made their dual announcements. The D1/D100 pairing was the proclamation that film SLRs are over, DSLRs are the future. The D3/D300 pairing was the introduction of EXPEED and full frame, both of which were Nikon's clear future. The D5/D500 was the last escalation of the DSLR. We didn't quite get a fully aligned pairing with mirrorless: the Z6/Z7 were announced together, but shipped separately, plus the Z50 (like the D100) came a year later.
Nikon's in a strong position with still cameras at the moment, and about to be strong across both still and video as the RED acquisition picks up speed. They've been slowly gaining market share, getting strong press, and garnering customer loyalty with the firmware updates. It's time for Nikon to once again make a technology statement that has them standing out from the rest of the makers. In my mind, that would be a Z9II and Z90 pairing using new technologies.
The operative question, however, is whether those new technologies are available? DGO (dual gain optimization) is. Global shutter probably is, though just improving the sensor's internal bandwidth is just a good an option for the moment. Photon detection is close (e.g. GigaJot), but I'm not 100% sure how close as they've gone silent running other than blasting out new patents. Real AI (beyond machine learning) is almost ready. Another clear uptick in EXPEED speed is more than possible, though expensive.
I've been clear about the one thing that wouldn't serve Nikon well: not completing the Z9 firmware updates and instead putting them into a Z9II that is only modestly upgraded otherwise. From a marketing and customer perspective that would be like running 24 miles of a marathon and then stopping to shoot yourself in the foot.
This year has moved fast for me. New cameras, new books, new updates, too much new work, all while trying to contemplating and developing my own 2026 announcements. I woke up this morning realizing that we're now not far from the best "announce point" for Nikon (prior to the 2026 Winter Olympics). Technically, that point should be in December, though it could drift to January. So what is it we'll get? In order of possible excitement:
- No new Z9 level product
- A Z9 firmware update
- A modest Z9II update
- A consequential Z9II update (with a potential DX sibling)
The last one could be a development announcement prior to the Olympics with some mules/prototypes at the games and a later-in-2026 launch (the DX sibling would be the surprise at the launch). The other two would really need to happen prior to the games.
Personally, I try not to look forward too much with this Web site, as we still have a lot to do in supporting the past and current products.
