The still photography side of the Z System now looks like the above illustration. For the moment I leave the ZR off this illustration, as it is a bridge to the RED video cameras and it's unclear how Z Cinema will progress.
I outlined in a previous article how Nikon isn't selling the ZR as a still camera at all. It's actually worse than that. I've now heard from the dealer base that some of them are being excluded from even selling the ZR apparently because that dealer's customer base is considered "too old." Good lord, Nikon, what are you doing? This reminds me of when Honda discontinued the Element because they found the average age of the buyer was far higher than they had targeted even though they sold well.
Yes, I know company resources are finite. However, squandering additional sales as apparently Nikon is with the ZR is a serious mistake. Do they actually believe that the creators/influencers will abandon the ZR because some "old folk" are also buying it? That's not true for the Fujifilm X100VI, so why would it be true for the ZR?
The cameras in the green-shaded area are the ones Nikon wants to sell you. Frankly, that's a pretty compelling lineup, with five cameras sitting in a very nice progression of performance (Z50II > Z5II > Z6III > Z8 > Z9, with the option of a Zf user interface instead of the Z5II). If Nikon would only update the Z9 firmware, this would be a lineup not at all matched by any other camera maker.
So who's being left out? I'm sure Z30, Zfc, Z7 and Z7II owners are raising their hands. But I'd tend to say that all of those have a fairly clear upgrade path:
- Z30 --> ZR (bet you weren't expecting that!)
- Zfc --> Zf
- Z7/Z7II --> Z6III (use pixel shift for static high resolution) or Z8
Yes, those are all "cost" upgrades as well as clear performative and functional ones. But I'd still argue that this is the correct path for most of those users. Expecting EXPEED7 in a Z30II at the current pricing, for instance, is probably out-of-the-question, at least until EXPEED7 is nearer the end of its lifespan. As I've noted before, a Z7III with EXPEED7 hurts Z8 sales, and with the Z8 selling at US$3999, just how much do you think you'd be saving on a Z7III brought up to the same standards? (Hint: a Z7III would be over US$3000 for sure.) Will we eventually get a Z7II replacement? I think so, but it might not be in a Z6III body.
What do I mean by that?
A Z7III in the Z6III body is effectively a Z8 with a sensor that can't handle 8K video as well nor the pre-release capture and high frame rate duties nearly as well. The latter means it keeps the mechanical shutter. But the Z7III defined this way also gains the higher resolution EVF, which the Z8 users would actually covet more. Yes, I could see Nikon making a Z7III that's EXPEED7 in a Z6III body in 2026, but only if Nikon sees a clear path for an eventual Z8II in 2027 that pushes new boundaries.
Nikon has clearly been juggling full frame camera announcements in a way that optimizes volume and dollars. Reminder, that order was Z9, Z8, Zf, Z6III, Z5II. I'm not sure the Z5II did as well as Nikon expected, but it's probably as much camera as most people need, so definitely couldn't have come before the Zf and Z6III.
One thing I keep hearing from Z7/Z7II users about upgrades is that they want a "small" camera, and see the Z6III/Z8 as "bigger than they desire." Thus, the most interesting Z7III option for Nikon would be to go the Sony A7CR route: something akin to the ZR body, but with a basic EVF in the upper left side of the back. That's not easy to create using the existing ZR as a base: there's not a lot of space on that side for an EVF, and it means the Rear LCD has to be shifted and not articulating (or else the camera has to grow upwards in size). Give up on the EVF and Nikon could make a Z7III tomorrow and it would fit into the lineup without hurting the Z6III/Z8. I doubt this would appeal all that much to the Z7/Z7II user, though.
Getting back to the headline, we have three models that didn't make the transition so far: Zfc, Z30, and Z7II. I'd be surprised if all of them did. It might be more useful to hold those updates until the next generation starts proliferating. Again, Nikon currently has a five model sweep that has almost the same level of function and features, but differs in performance. That "performance" comes in pixel count (20, 24, 45), frame size (DX, FX), frame rate (10 fps to 120 fps max), rolling shutter (1/20 to 1/268). top video (4K to 8K), and a host of other small bits and pieces (e.g. battery, EN-EL15 versus EN-EL18).
As I can set them the same, I personally use my Z6III, Z8, and Z9 nearly interchangeably now, really balancing size against performance needed. The Z50II and Z5II work sort of the same way for me as convenience cameras, again with size (both body and sensor) being the determinate.
If I were Nikon, I'd update the Z9 firmware to better match the Z8's, and move on to the next generation of cameras to start this progression all over again.
