With Nikkei’s annual release of unit volume numbers for various camera categories, it’s time to take a look at how Nikon fared in the first six years of the Z System. Without further ado:
This is percent of mirrorless camera shipments, again from Nikkei’s published numbers. I’ve annotated the chart to show the models introduced in each year in red (impact of sales of those models would tend to be mostly reflected in the following year results).
One common comment I hear a lot is that Fujifilm is stealing Nikon’s thunder. Consider Fujifilm’s market share volume for mirrorless, though (Nikon is again blue, while Fujifilm is the green line in this chart):
Quite a bit of Fujifilm’s recent “growth” on their digital side was actually the X100VI, not their mirrorless cameras. Fujifilm has a higher market share than Nikon in overall cameras, but lower in mirrorless.
Okay, so at this point you probably want to see “all players.” Here’s that chart:
The results in 2024, by the way, are about where we were most of the time in the DSLR market, with the one change being that Sony and Nikon have reversed positions. Canon and Sony in 2024 had 70.5% of the shipments. Canikony, my name for the triopoly, had 85.1%. Given that we’ve had this kind of duo/trio dominance dating well back into the film SLR market, one would have to conclude that the interchangeable lens camera market seems to always devolve to no more than a triopoly, a classic Trout & Ries point about how most markets behave.
Bottom line is that Nikon has reasonably successfully pulled off their DSLR to mirrorless transition, though the delay in doing so probably cost them a place in the market share race. The challenge for Nikon now falls on the post-Z9 generation cameras, which will need another market changing innovation to fully solidify their triopoly position.
Of course, there are other things Nikon could do that could boost their overall camera market growth (as opposed to mirrorless only). In particular, two come to mind: (a) a DX or FX compact; and (b) a camera that helps them bridge the gap between the current Z System and the current RED system. My suspicion is that they’ll do all three: another innovation cycle, a compact based on the Z9 cycle, and a video camera that has RED DNA in it to bridge from mirrorless to pro video. The only real outstanding question is when.
