Thom Hogan

I knew that Nikon was toying with a lens release, but it didn’t make the 2025 calendar and instead appeared today: the 24-105mm f/4-7.1 lens. This low cost (US$550) was designed to be a more versatile kit lens for the Z5II (and other lower-cost full frame cameras), and will appear as a bundle option with that camera for US$2200 sometime in the next month or two. 

Good things and not-so-good things pepper a lens like this. The good is that it is still weather sealed (though not S), is very lightweight (350g), and provides up to 1:2 close up capability. The not-so-good is that it doesn’t have VR and doesn’t come supplied with the HB-93B lens hood. And, of course, the price is probably the most good thing of all, a relatively low.

The published MTF looks “okay” for the wide angle side—decent through the DX corners—and actually "very good" on the telephoto side, and overall better than the 24-200mm lens, so this new lens may become the preferred travel lens for many. 

I don't usually make predictions these days. I try to live in the present as much as possible, and so should you.

That said, there's enough fantasy flotsam floating around the net at the moment that I think a more considered approach needs to be presented. So here are my Z System 2026 predictions:

1. Z9II, but later than you expect. There's little doubt Nikon has been working on this, and a few bits and pieces of information have indeed trickled in, but I'd be surprised if a new flagship makes it out in time for the 2026 Winter Olympics (February). It may miss the World Cup, too (June/July). Word is that the camera is still moving forward, but that key parts are arriving in quantity later than originally planned. Maybe we'll see mules in Torino or the soccer stadia. 
2. Z30II, but not named what you think. It's always difficult to outguess Nikon marketing; they've changed naming near last minute before. I get the sense, however, that any Z30 refresh now has to fit in with the RED bridging, so maybe ZR30? That doesn't exactly make sense, so perhaps ZRc (cropped sensor letter added to match ZF/Zfc). 
3. Maybe Z7III, but that still seems iffy. The real issue is that Nikon doesn't want to undercut the Z8, which is still selling well. Doing the Z6III type of update for the Z7 would seem to put Z8 sales in jeopardy. That said, once the Z9II iterates, that's going to put some Z8 sales on hold as people will expect a Z8II making the same or similar changes not long after (I'm not sure that will happen, though). Nikon will want to use any Z8 sales weakness as the timing for a Z7III drop. The real question, though, is "which Z7III?" I know of two mules that were out there at some point, and they had different image sensors. If it were me in charge, I'd target a better EVF, Z9-generation, 45mp Z7III launching in late 2026. That's the right timing for parts re-use, among other things. But it's not me in charge, so who knows? Bottom line: I know of no information that indicates that a Z7III is iminent. 

I'm not really expecting any other Z System cameras from Nikon in 2026. Nikon's yearly ILC iteration since the pandemic has been 1, 2, 2, and 2, and my predictions above are again 2 (with a possible +1). As much as some might want a dual drop (Z9II with Z90), I don't see a higher end DX camera coming until Nikon commits to their next APS-C sensor, and I'm pretty sure that hasn't happened yet. There's a case to be made for Nikon using a one-off sensor for any Z90, but I just don't see them doing that at the lower end of the lineup where keeping costs down through parts re-use is absolutely necessary.

4. The missing telephoto arrives. You and I may disagree what's missing, but I'm saying the 100-300mm range really needs more addressing. There have been plenty of rumors that the 120-300mm f/2.8 is about to make a leap from F to Z. The fact that it hasn't already appeared tells me that Nikon has something up their sleeve there (e.g. 120-300mm f/2.8 TC, or a change in focal length, perhaps even a faster aperture). I wouldn't be surprised to see this show up as a PF (phase fresnel) lens, which would also explain the delay.
5. The next "Two" arrives. This one isn't difficult to predict now that we've seen what Nikon did with the 24-70mm f/2.8. Nikon has a long history of updating the two key f/2.8 zooms, and thus the 70-200mm f/2.8 VR S II certainly is coming soon. Nikon will want the pro base (Z9II, 24-70mm f/2.8 II, 70-200mm f/2.8 II) is available together to show off what’s new, particularly in focus performance.
6. RED-ready will dominate the rest of the new lenses. We know that Nikon has committed to a line of Cinema lenses, and we really need to see them playing out in 2026 in order to boost ZRc, ZR, and RED sales. I don't know how many Nikon will get to in 2026, but I expect at least two new primes, and probably three. Plus there's the potential for a DX lens, too.

Beyond the above lenses, Nikon is currently a bit pushed on capacity. The new Japanese lens plant is now under construction, so Nikon has their own supply constraints at the moment. 

7. The ZR will lead the 2026 firmware parade. The Z8, and then the Z6III led the 2025 firmware parade, with everything else building on that and then picking off a new piece or two. I believe that Nikon now sees all the things that need to change on the video side and that will be driving firmware updates during the year. That doesn't mean we won't get still-function updates—even the ZR needs some of those—it just means that the Z9-generation camera they're looking most to now extend capabilities for is the ZR, and every other Z9-generation camera will get some spillover from that (and maybe a bit of Z9II goodies eventually, too). 

Will there be surprises? 

I hope so. A nice surprise would be a compact camera, for instance, and that's well within the realm of parts reassembly coupled with a new compact built-in lens (e.g. 20mp DX, EXPEED7, big bright LCD). But I think most of Nikon's surprises for 2026 are really going to come in what the Z9II actually entails. As I noted in my other article, Nikon needs a new statement of technologies, and the Z9II is the camera to lead that.

The good news is that the basic lineup (Z50II, Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, and Z9) is really solid moving into the new year, and keeping the Zfc, Z5, Z6II, and Z7II around gives Nikon some price incentive models to still play with. So Nikon doesn't really need to do a lot in 2026, as they're starting with a really solid foundation of products. 2027, on the other hand, is going to be a year Nikon needs to scramble more in. Assuming a Z9II in 2026, then user expectations would be that the new tech starts trickling down the next year.

Let's start with what we did get from Nikon in 2025:

• 2 Cameras — Z5II, ZR
• 4 Lenses — 16-50mm f/2.8 VR DX, 35mm f/1.7 DX, 24-70mm f/2.8 S II, 35mm f/1.2 S
• 14 Firmware Updates:
  • 4 Significant — Zf, Z6III, Z8, Z9
  • 10 Modest — Zfc, Z30, Z50, Z50II, Z5, Z5II, Z6, Z6II, Z7, Z7II

Looking back on it all, to me it feels as if 2025 was mostly about filling gaps:

• Entry full frame moved into the Z9 generation filling a gap that the other brands haven't yet managed well
• The ZR bridged the Z/RED lineups
• The DX lens set extended the appeal of the recently introduced Z50II and even the older Zfc
• Missing functions were added to the Z9 generation firmware for every such camera
• All the Z9 generation firmware was brought mostly into congruence 

Nothing is wrong with that list. Those of us already in the Z System saw Nikon's strong commitment to (as much as possible) getting a full lineup filled and normalized. Nikon is actually unique among brands at the moment in that everything from the low-cost Z50II up through the top-end pro Z9 shares functionality, personality, and customization. What now distinguishes the current products is that you basically pay for more performance as you move up the line. 

Those still only thinking about the Z System saw new options appear that might entice them (entry FX renewed, DX extended via lenses, ZR showing off new vlogging/video skills). To them, the Z System now seems fuller, and that shared functionality, personality, and customization means you can reliably grow in the lineup without re-learning.

All good things.

What's missing, though, was new truly new ideas and technology breakthroughs. 

While Nikon pioneered the partially stacked image sensor in 2024—and helped create the equipment Sony Semiconductor's fab uses to create this new option—it turns out that the resulting chip was capable of DGO, but Nikon didn't take advantage of that. And while the Z9 moved the pro ball forward, Canon and Sony have now fully responded, so it feels like Nikon is a little out of step with features and performance (just a little).

So to answer my own headline, yes, I think Nikon did very well in 2025. Remember, they're still trying to re-establish full-line confidence in a system that's still very young (half as old as Sony's), so getting both product and feature fill-in was important. Moreover, Nikon has actually been listening to many of us raising our voices about things that need improvement. We didn't get everything we asked for, but we're getting more than we're used to, and what Nikon produced better matches what we asked for. That every Z System camera Nikon has made was touched by a firmware update in 2025 says something about their own commitment to the system, too, even when those changes are just a bug fix, a renaming, or minor feature. 

While I was on Nikon's case most of the year about the missing Z9 firmware update, they finally got around to it, and it actually introduced a couple of new things we weren't expecting. The current lineup (Z50II, Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, Z9) is very solid now.

So yes, Nikon did enough in 2025. 

However, that sets up 2026 as a year in which Nikon needs to show us that they know where to drive the system next. One part is a given: more Z/RED bridging. But 2026 is also the year we all expect the next generation to be disclosed, and with that comes the need for Nikon to show that they can edge ahead of Canony again with technologies, performance, and features that move the state-of-the-art. 

What I'm looking at now, therefore, is this: will Nikon do enough in 2026 to get even more momentum? 

Because the news articles begin to get buried deep in archives, I’ve promoted them into separate yearly folders now. If you’re looking for the current year’s news, just click on News/Views in the menus at the top of the page (i.e. don’t use the pull down menu). 

Here are the stories that appeared on this site in 2024:

Because the news articles are starting to get buried deep in archives, I’ve promoted them into separate yearly folders now. If you’re looking for the current year’s news, just click on News/Views in the menus at the top of the page (i.e. don’t use the pull down menu). 

Here are the stories that appeared on this site in 2022: