Nikon Z System News and Commentary
The Number One Question I’m Getting
Every year this time I get the questions about when Nikon will release their next camera (or lens). That’s because the Z-mount customer has been conditioned to expect fall releases. The over/under for camera releases by Nikon is August. In the past they’ve released six cameras in the April to July time frame, and seven in the September to November time frame (the original Z6/Z7 were announced exactly in between, in August.
The queries are a bit stronger this year, as Nikon hasn’t introduced any camera since the ZR last September, and no still-oriented camera since the Z5II in April 2025. Moreover, the Z9II is overdue, as it missed the usual four-year pro update cycle.
As I’ve been writing all year, I don’t expect Nikon’s next camera announcement until after Labor Day. And now we see a hint of that in the Nikon Q1 financials just released: “downward revision to the 1H sales plan” is a clear clue that nothing sigificant gets released in the July through September quarter (e.g. even a September announcement may not ship to customers until October). It’s not a big thing, but Nikon took out about 50,000 camera units from their fiscal year forecast, which is about what I’d expect from not shipping anything new in Q2 (July to September). Essentially, delays in new product introductions seem to be pushing volume into the next fiscal year, as lenses also saw a 50,000 unit reduction.
Nikon is claiming these reductions are also due to overall digital camera sales declines in China (marketwide, not just Nikon), but typically new product introductions tend to goose the numbers about the way Nikon originally forecast and is now discounting. Given Nikon’s new fiscal volume estimates, I’d have to guess that one new camera ships in the Q3 time frame (October to December), and another in Q4 (January to March, 2027). That’s pretty much onboard with what I’ve been hearing and writing about all year: one fall intro, one late 26/early 27 intro.
One final note on the Q1 numbers: imaging products inventories has been slow growing (about 6% over the past year). Nothing worrisome, but if that continues I’d expect to see more aggressive discounting in the Christmas selling season.
Will We Get Unique NIKKORs Again?
So here’s a question to ask yourself: what NIKKOR lens currently stands out as unique across all mounts these days?
Answer: 50mm f/0.95 NOCT.
Runner Ups: the 135mm f/1.8 Plena, 600mm f/6.3 VR S, and 800mm f/6.3 VR S.
Also considered: 28-400mm f/4-8 VR, 28-135mm f/4 PZ.
There was a time back in the film SLR and DSLR F-mount cycles when Nikon was continuous iterating truly unique lenses that no one else had: first zoom, first autofocus lens, first exotic telephotos, first 17-35mm f/2.8, first, first, first. And often times, those lenses stayed unique for a period of years.
With the Z-mount Nikon seems gone more conservative and mainstream with their NIKKOR offerings. Instead of unique focal lengths and apertures, which drives different uses, we instead have seen Nikon opt for highest possible performance at well-known focal lengths and aperture combinations that are known to sell in quantity.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about the quality of Nikon’s Z-mount offerings. With very few exceptions they’ve all turned out to be at or near best-in-class, and edge-to-edge sharpness with few other drawbacks makes for detailed, sharp, and anomaly-free images. I’m all for that.
What’s missing this time around seems to be true creativity in optics: designing lenses that just haven’t existed before, or which push extremes more extremely, as does the NOCT, which is probably the best testing lens to ever hit the byThom labs. Likewise, the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S put exotic telephotos on notice that there’s a new standard in town, though I don’t judge it to be pushing extremes too extremely (Sony’s 400mm f/2.8 is close).
We have had an odd couple of lens incidentals that now seem to be abandoned. For instance, the OLED display on some of the top S lenses now seems to be a thing of that past (as it should be). At the time some thought it to be a step forward, but my eye is not hovering over the lens barrel, and if the information is available to the lens barrel where I can’t see it, it should also be available in the camera’s displays, right? Oops. Misfire.
What strikes me is that so many of Nikon’s unique F-mount lenses never made it to mirrorless:
- 8-15mm f/3.5-4.5E fisheye zoom — solved four use cases in one lens
- 16mm f/2.8 fisheye — created and fulfilled the full-frame fisheye standard for years
- 17-35mm f/2.8D — at the time, outside the parameters of what you could find elsewhere, and coveted
- 20-35mm f/2.8D — a forgotten lens that seems pretty well suited to the creator era
- 35-135mm f/3.5-4.5 — yes, Nikon was there early; Tamron has now usurped the spot with a faster lens
- 70-180mm f/4.5-5.6D Micro-NIKKOR — hands down the most interesting and practical macro lens I’ve used
- 180mm f/2.8 — smaller and lighter than the 70-200mm f/2.8 when you just needed something fast near 200mm
- 180-400mm f/4E TC — no, the 120-300mm f/2.8 TC isn’t going to solve the same problem; and this lens was Nikon’s followup to the popular 200-400mm f/4, one of the great all-around wildlife lenses
- 200mm f/4D Micro-NIKKOR — about 75,000 users wonder why this lens was left to die in D-dom
- any PC-E lens — sure, not a big seller, but tilt-shift establishes a camera use well beyond what we can do with current Z-mount lenses
The reason for the lack of more unique lenses in the Z-mount almost certainly is due to bean counters. A few of the lenses I just listed did sell well, but many had smaller customer bases that Nikon may now be afraid of in the current “everything must return instant profit” era.
One question I now have is this: if Nikon were to suddenly get their path-blazing design mojo back, exactly what would that lens or lenses be? The problem now is that Canon, Sigma, Sony, and Tamron have all been nibbling away at unique opportunities, so a lot of “different” lenses Nikon might consider today would now look more copycat than unique.
Again, I have no problem at all with what Nikon has produced so far in the Z-mount. Most of my needs are now met by lenses better than I used before. And as I age out, my actual needs are narrowing (to lenses I already own). There’s perhaps six to eight lenses that really belong in my gear closet now, though I have a few more. And those six to eight are covered by existing NIKKORs just fine.
Still, I wonder what would happen if Nikon let their optical engineers off their tight bean-counting leash. After all, in the past Nikon was putting out lenses that allowed us to do new things photographically on a pretty regular basis. I still remember the first mountain bike photographer discovering the 16mm f/2.8 fisheye and how that impacted the editorial market almost instantly. As Sontag so clearly explained, photography gets stale if you just do the same old things the same way as the past practitioner has been doing. Even the Insta and Toker communities are discovering that the hard way these days.
Thus my challenge to the NIKKOR group at Nikon is simple: show us the optics that allow us to do things we haven’t been able to do before, and I’ll show you my credit card.