Here Comes Another Round of Guessing

Nikon Japan has already posted that pre-orders for the Zfc have exceeded expectations, and that they won’t be able to deliver enough units to fill that demand (unclear whether that’s Japan-only or worldwide).

I’m sure plenty of folk will point to how this means that Nikon was right, that the Zfc was the camera everyone was waiting for, and will be wildly successful. Of course, Nikon doesn’t tell us how many they will produce in the initial shipments, so you can’t really judge much from Nikon’s statement. (I’d bet 25-30k initial units of all SKUs, and that’s only if there aren’t parts constraints in effect that I don’t know about)

Moreover, despite my own personal reservations, I expect the Zfc to sell well initially. There are plenty of folk that have convinced themselves from the announcement that a retro camera is what they want. Just as with the Df, the Zfc first round orders will look good. It’s what happens after the reviews come out and people have experience not really using the dials (again: you won’t use the shutter speed dial in P and A modes and 1/3 shutter speeds, and you won’t use the ISO dial in Auto ISO, and you don’t have an Aperture dial ;~) that matters. I’ll reiterate that the first full review in China bemoaned the lack of suitable lenses, so you have to ask yourself just how many people are there that want a camera with really only a 16-50mm or 28mm lens. (Okay, the 50mm macro seems appropriate, too.)

Meanwhile, what’s happening to Z50 sales? Are Z50 sales now so low that Nikon can shift parts to the Zfc, or does the Zfc double the Z DX sales? 

We’re in early days of Z DX. How it eventually plays out is unknown, and we still have the Z30 to see launched and the one known additional DX lens that is now only partly launched (18-140mm development announcement). 

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